Robust Demand Forecast to Continue into Q4
A report from China Daily Oct. 13th, 2025:
China's auto market is expected to maintain its growth trajectory through the fourth quarter as strong demand, policy changes, and steady production underpin momentum for both traditional and new energy vehicle makers.
"During the National Day holiday, many provinces and cities hosted auto shows, and manufacturers have been offering supportive incentives," said Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association.
Lang said this year's market dynamics are unique. Starting 2026, China will resume its purchase tax on new energy vehicles, although it will stand at 5 percent of a car's price, half of the rate for gasoline vehicles.
"Under these circumstances, demand in the fourth quarter will remain strong, leading to a noticeable year-end surge," Lang said.
Industry data show that China's auto market has maintained steady growth so far this year, with NEV penetration remaining at a high level.
A total of 21.12 million vehicles were delivered from January to August, up 12.6 percent year-on-year, according to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
Of them 9.62 million were new energy vehicles, whose growth hit 36.7 percent from the same period of 2024. NEVs accounted for 45.5 percent of total vehicle deliveries, said the CAAM.
With robust demand, a high base of NEV adoption, and automakers pushing for year-end deliveries, China's auto market is to finish the year on a strong note. It sets the stage for 2026, said analysts.