Foreign Institutions Bullish on China’s Economy

A report from chinadaily.com.cn on Feb. 18th, 2024:

A number of foreign institutions have made a macroeconomic outlook for China in 2024. Many institutions believe that this year, China’s economy will show a momentum of steady progress, and economic growth may be generally higher than the average of last year. At the same time, real estate is expected to achieve a gradual recovery, and domestic consumption will continue to improve, reported Beijing News recently.

Multiple foreign institutes forecast that there is still enormous potential for China to leverage on fiscal or monetary policies. In 2024, China’s fiscal policy will be more proactive, and the synergy of macro policies will increase. A-share are expected to rise in 2024.

135 million domestic tourist trips were made during the three-day New Year holiday that ended on Jan 1, surging 155.3 percent year-on-year, according to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, with a rise of 9.4 percent compared with the same period in 2019.

Domestic tourism revenue reached 79.73 billion yuan ($11.22 billion) over the course of these three days, an increase of 200.7 percent year-on-year and a rise of 5.6 percent over the same period in 2019.

As per data released from the Ministry of Commerce, the sales of key retail and catering enterprises in the country increased by 11 percent year-on-year during the New Year holiday. It is noticeable that the sales of gold, silver and jewelry, construction materials, and furniture rose by 21.2 percent, 13.1 percent and 12.9 percent, respectively.

Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS Investment Bank said that, consumption growth is expected to outpace GDP growth this year, as the recovery in service industry, labor market and household incomes continues.

However, Liu Jing, chief economist at HSBC, believes that in 2024, the new people-oriented urbanization process will further release consumption potential, while the gradual stabilization of the real estate market will also promote consumption for improvement, and expand the growth momentum to other areas.

Multiple agencies predict that with the support of multiple policies, the real estate market will recover and finally achieve stability.

The economic policy applied by Chinese government takes into account the smooth transition of economic structure, indicating that in the new year, the precise balance of short-term and long-term goals will promote the growth of new momentum and the continuous development of old momentum, thereby driving the economy steadily toward a higher-quality development path, Liu said.